YEAR OF THE PIG TAKES A POSITIVE TURN
豬肉價格趨穩

The stench filling the air outside the Good Breeding pig farm in an otherwise bucolic mid-autumn day on Beijing's rural outskirts is the best news Li Yongqiang has had for nearly a year.
在一個本應有著田園詩般意境的秋日里，北京郊區的好飼養(Good Breeding)養豬場散發著撲鼻的臭氣，而這是李永強（音譯）近一年來最大的好消息了。

After cutting production in 2006 because of rising feed costs and low pork prices, Mr Li late last year lost another one-sixth of his pigs in an outbreak of the deadly “blue ear” disease.
在2006年因飼料價格不斷上漲和豬肉價格低迷而減產后，去年底，致命的“藍耳”病爆發，又使李永強的豬場損失了六分之一的牲畜。

Mr Li's problems were replicated on tens of thousands of small farms throughout China, causing a national shortage of pork and other staple foods and pushing inflation to an 11-year high of 6.5 per cent in August.
李永強的問題也出現在了中國各地成千上萬家小農場，導致一場全國性的豬肉及其它主要食品短缺，使得8月份的通脹率升至6.5%的11年高點。

“But right now, I am increasing production,” Mr Li tells visitors. “[Premier] Wen Jiabao has encouraged us to raise more pigs.”
李永強對來訪者講：“但現在，我在提高產量。溫家寶總理鼓勵我們養更多的豬。”

Once solely a domestic concern, China's commanding role in the global economy, as an exporter of finished goods, a consumer of farm products and a buyer of US debt, makes its inflation a potentially global issue. And when it comes to China's inflation, the big story this year has been the soaring price of pork, one of China's staple meats.
這曾經只是一個國內問題，但中國作為成品出口國、農產品消費大國及美國債券購買方，在全球經濟中占據著重要地位，因而，中國的通脹可能會成為一個全球問題。談到中國通脹的時候，豬肉價格飛漲一直是今年的一個重大話題，豬肉是中國主要的食用肉類。

But there are now signs that the rules of supply and demand are beginning to work in the market for Chinese pigs.
但有跡象表明，供需規律正開始在中國的豬肉市場中發揮作用。

From an annualised output of 3,000 pigs last year, Mr Li is aiming for 4,700 in 2007. With a breeding cycle at about 170 days, he will soon be sending fattened pigs off to a market that is still offering near-record prices.
2007年，李永強計劃將生豬年產量從去年的3000頭提高到4700頭。豬的養殖周期約為170天，所以他將能夠很快地把養肥的豬送往市場，目前的豬肉價格則仍接近歷史最高水平。

Mr Li calls himself a “small potato” in a Chinese market that raises and slaughters about 500m pigs a year. But if the latest figures from Beijing are right, the slow but perceptible turnround in the fortunes of Mr Li reflect a tentative national trend, of more pigs coming to market and the start of a decline in prices.
中國市場每年宰殺5億頭豬，李永強稱自己只是個“小角色”。但如果中國政府最新數據準確的話，李永強的“財運”所發生的緩慢但可以察覺的轉變，反映出一種初步的全國趨勢——隨著更多的豬上市，豬肉價格開始下降。#p#分頁標題#e#

According to China's chief economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, the cost of pork in supermarkets has fallen for two weeks in succession. Outside the pig farms, the other barometer being watched by the central government is the grain harvest in the northern autumn. The signs at the moment are that it will be good.
根據中國政府主要經濟計劃部門國家發改委(National Development and Reform Commission)的數據，超市的豬肉價格已連續兩周下降。除了養豬場，中央政府關注的另外一個晴雨表就是北方秋季的糧食收成。目前的跡象顯示，今年的收成不錯。

“If the grain distribution system works smoothly, and assuming limited pass-through of agricultural price increases to other products, CPI [consumer price index] inflation should average in the range of 6-6.5 per cent in September, and then 5-5.5 per cent in December,” says Jun Ma, a Deutsche Bank economist in Hong Kong.
德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)駐香港經濟學家馬駿(Jun Ma)表示：“如果糧食分銷系統運轉順暢，同時假定農產品價格上漲沒有過多地傳遞到其它產品上，9月份消費者價格指數(CPI)通脹應平均在6%-6.5%之間，12月份應該在5%-5.5%之間。”

Mr Ma believes that inflation should then fall to about 3.5 per cent in 2008, a result that would delight the government, as it is below the current one-year benchmark deposit rate of 3.87 per cent. The threat of persistent negative real interest rates scares Beijing, as it could propel depositors to empty their bank accounts and plough their cash into an already frothy stock market.
馬駿相信，通脹會在2008年降至3.5%左右，這將令政府滿意，因為它低于目前的一年期基準存款利率3.87%。長時間的負實際利率令中國政府感到恐懼，因為這可能驅使儲蓄者清空自己的銀行賬戶，并將所有現金投入一個已存在泡沫的股市。

There are other signs of a growing pig population, including an increase in the past two months of already high feed prices. On Mr Li's farm, for example, the cost of a bag of feed has gone up by 30 per cent since August.
其它跡象也表明，豬的養殖數量在不斷上升，其中包括本已高昂的飼料價格在過去兩個月再度上漲。以李永強的養豬場為例，8月以來，一袋飼料的價格上漲了30%。

But there are also questions over whether the impact will be lasting.
但對于此種效果能否持續，還存在著一些疑問。

According to one industry analyst, who asked not be named, the recent fall in pork prices may have been due to supply factors peculiar to the Chinese market and mean there is unlikely to be any significant fall in pork prices until early next year. “Some farmers need to pay cash for their children's education fees in September, so they kill pigs early during this season,” the analyst said.
一位不愿透露姓名的行業分析人士稱，中國市場特有的供應因素，可能是近期豬肉價格下降的原因所在，而這意味著，在明年初之前，豬肉價格不會再出現任何大幅下降。這位分析人士表示：“9月份，一些農民需要為孩子交學費，所以他們提前殺豬。”

For all the price rises, Mr Li still speaks in the resigned tones of a long-time farmer who believes the real benefits of his labour are always reaped by others. “The price they give to us is low. And the price that is given to the other businesses is high. The government and the farmers cannot control things. Only the middle-men can.”#p#分頁標題#e#
盡管價格上漲，李永強還是那種老莊稼人聽天由命的口氣，認為自己的勞動成果總是被別人摘走。“他們給我們的價格很低。而賣給其它企業的價格很高。政府和農民控制不了。只有那些中間人可以做到。”

He also worries about the impact of the recent ups and downs. “This is the biggest fluctuation I have seen in 20 years.” he says. “Many farmers may not want to raise pigs in the future.”
他還擔心近來市場波動的影響。他表示：“這是20年來我見過最大的起伏。今后，很多農民可能不想再養豬了。”